By Zachary Gorchow
Executive Editor and Publisher
Posted: January 7, 2020 5:19 PM
For most of the term limits era, there's a pretty reliable pattern during the election cycle when it comes to the Michigan House.
It starts out with a relatively large number of the 110 seats looming as competitive, perhaps 25-30. The parties early in the cycle when it comes to candidate recruitment seek to make sure they have at least credible candidates on the ballot in those seats in the event a real race develops. Of those 25-30, probably 10-15 are seen as seriously up for grabs.
Then as the cycle gets about a year out from Election Day, there's usually a narrowing. Several seats fall off the radar because the parties are struggling to find someone to run. Electoral trends cause party strategists to conclude they ought not waste time and resources in some seats. Then once the primary is over, it starts to become clear whether candidates who had gained little notice have built momentum through fundraising, hard work and the partisan lean for the cycle and the field expands some. Finally, in the final two to three weeks, the parties have to make final decisions on where to spend their money and the field shrinks again to about 10 seats.
For the 2020 cycle, however, it all looks different.
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